This paper examines shifts in Russia’s age composition, disruptions to migration flows, and changing fertility and mortality. A central mechanism is the demographic wave effect: small cohorts born in the 1990s are entering reproductive and prime working ages. Births are therefore likely to decline in the near term, alongside a contraction of the labour force. The war further tightens these constraints. It reduces the supply of young men through mobilisation, emigration, and labour market exit, and it increases mortality via direct combat losses. Indirect pathways may also affect future life expectancy, including elevated stress and possible increases in domestic violence, crime, and alcohol consumption.
The analysis revisits migration as a compensatory mechanism. Inflows from Central Asia and the broader post-Soviet space have historically moderated natural decrease. Evidence suggests weakening inflows as sanctions and volatility reduce relative earnings prospects and as hostile rhetoric discourages potential migrants. Net migration may therefore move toward zero. Finally, the paper develops probabilistic scenarios. Under an inertial path, human capital continues to erode. Under a pessimistic path, adverse processes reinforce one another over time. Altering the medium-term trajectory would likely require substantial political and social shifts; otherwise, Russia faces an elevated risk of long-lasting losses in population potential.

Authors:
Salavat Abylkalikov, University of Regensburg, Germany

About the Presenter(s)
Salavat Abylkalikov,Philipp Schwartz Fellow of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, Institute of Economics and Econometrics, University of Regensburg; Associate Research Fellow at the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS).

Connect on Linkedin
https://www.linkedin.com/in/salavat-abylkalikov/

See this presentation on the full schedule – Wednesday Schedule

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