An Analytical Review of Climate Change Impact on Coconut Production and Price in Sri Lanka (80226)
Saturday, 15 June 2024 17:35
Session: Session 6 (Poster Session)
Room: Salle 201
Presentation Type:Poster Presentation
Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) is an important food crop in Sri Lanka. It is known as Kapruka or the "tree of life" as it has become an integral part of the financial and social facets of Sri Lankans. Sri Lanka is the fourth largest coconut producer in the world. It contributes 0.7% of the country’s GDP. However, changes in precipitation patterns were claimed to cause crop failures in the short term and production declines in the long term. Another past study said that the coconut supply was reduced due to climate change. These generalized studies cannot explain what has happened in Sri Lanka in the last ten years. This paper attempts to re-examine the extent to which climate change, impacted the coconut production and price in Sri Lanka. For this purpose, we conducted a comprehensive data analysis on rainfall and average drought months, coconut production, prices, exports, and domestic consumption, from 2010-2020. Through an analysis of rainfall and drought months, we found that increasing drought months in the main coconut triangle negatively impacted coconut. Inflorescence initiation is the most sensitive stage to climate variations. Higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and increased incidence of pests and diseases reduce coconut production by reducing fruit sets. Elevated CO2 can offset the negative effects. However, yield under drought was low. Coconut production shows a moderately negative correlation to fresh coconut retail prices. Coconut production in the current year is mainly affected by the weather conditions in the previous year. Therefore, changes in production had a varied impact on price.
Authors:
Kimesha Silva, University of Tsukuba, Japan
Kenichi Matsui, University of Tsukuba, Japan
About the Presenter(s)
Kimesha Silva is a Doctoral Student at the University of Tsukuba, Japan
See this presentation on the full schedule – Saturday Schedule
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